The personal luxury goods sector is expected to grow between zero percent and four percent at constant exchange rates in 2025, supported by sales in Europe and the Americas, with China expected to recover only in the second half of 2025, Bain said.
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Global luxury sales will fall two percent in 2024, one of the weakest years on record for global luxury sales, consultancy Bain & Company said.
In its closely watched report on the $386 billion global market, Bain forecast a 20-22 percent drop in China. Luxury sales had been shrinking after years of booming before the pandemic, fueled by the wealthy and a growing middle class.
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The forecast includes the impact of currency movements. “This is the first time the personal luxury industry has seen a decline since the 2008-09 crisis, with the exception of the pandemic,” Bain partner Federica Levato told Reuters.
The study, released Wednesday, is likely to raise concerns among investors that the current downturn in the sector, which has sent stocks such as LVMH and Kering tumbling, may be longer and deeper than anticipated.
Global sales of luxury personal goods — which include clothing, accessories and beauty products — are expected to be flat at constant exchange rates during the holiday season, with China’s performance still negative, Levato said.
A shift by brands to position their products at higher price points, coupled with weakening consumer confidence amid the war, China’s economic woes and elections around the world, has kept many consumers, especially younger ones, from making purchases.
“The luxury consumer base has shrunk by 50 million over the past two years, from a total of about 400 million consumers,” Levato said.
The market’s growth prospects depend in part on brands’ strategic choices, including on pricing, he added.
In a further sign that higher prices are holding consumers back, Bain said stores performed better, driven by shoppers’ search for value.
The personal luxury sector is expected to grow between zero percent and four percent at constant exchange rates in 2025, driven by sales in Europe and the Americas, with China not expected to recover until the second half of 2025, Bain said.
Mr Levato said Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election had removed one uncertainty, while the possibility of lower interest rates and tax cuts could encourage Americans to spend more.
In contrast to personal goods, luxury spending on experiences, such as hospitality and dining, is expected to increase this year, Bain said.
